Concluding Post: Who Knows What Is In Store?

 

 In 1875, under the leadership of Isma'il Pasha, a small Egyptian army marched Southwards with the aim to add the entire River Nile Basin and the source of the Blue Nile River to his empire (Jesman, 1959). A small unintimidating Egyptian battalion set out on this conquest, however their threat was rapidly nullified by Ethiopian forces which intercepted them in what is modern day Eritrea during the Battle of Gundet (Jesman, 1959). Soon after this embarrassing defeat another Egyptian invasion followed, known as the Battle of Gura, but this also resulted in a devastating defeat and embarrassment for the Egyptians and their ambitions to take control of the Nile ended (Jesman, 1959). 

 Around 150 years later Egyptian leadership once again is seeking control over the Nile, however this time the Ethiopians are aware of what is incoming. Despite the increase in Egyptian armament which I outlined in the previous post, the Egyptian government still aspires for a diplomatic and just outcome (Hendawi, 2022). Both Egypt and Sudan have called for the USA to mediate the negotiation talks and help the affected nations achieve an equitable resolution which is legally binding and enforceable (Washington Post, 2021). This follows Sudan's latest appeal for the UN, EU and South Africa to become more engaged with the geopolitical conflict and take a more proactive approach (UN, 2021). However, Ethiopia is highly opposed to external involvement, especially after the 2020 $100 million cut in aid from the USA to Ethiopia due to their disapproval of the GERD's development and intended use (BBC, 2020). 

Figure 1: US and Egyptian presidents meeting in 2022 to discuss GERD, amongst other topics

 Cooperation is necessary from all riparian states involved in this conflict for a suitable and unbiased order to be achieved regarding the utilisation of Nile water (Hassan et al., 2007). If this isn't possible and an agreement can't be made and upheld, it is likely that the bloodshed of 1875 and the history of Egyptian conquest over the Nile will resume, however this time on a far greater scale.