Egypt is Rolling up its Sleeves: Do we have a Fight on the Horizon?

 

 Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been around the table for almost 10 years now with an aim to find and equitable resolution to this looming issue, however a formal agreement is yet to be finalised (Soliman, 2021). A burst of light broke the cloud looming over the Nile Basin Region in 2015 when the declaration of principles was signed, stating Ethiopia had both Egypt and Sudan's blessings to develop the dam on the condition that an agreement is to be reached in regard to the dam's use and management prior to the first filling of the reservoir, however, Ethiopia began filling in 2020 without reaching an agreement (Soliman, 2021). Following this backhanded blow from Ethiopia, subsequent meetings have been held with Dutch and French consultancy firms hired to draft an analysis of the social, environmental and economic impacts of the development, however these talks, just as those preceding them, failed to reach a just arrangement (Lawson, 2017). The issue causing the most contention is drought mitigation, especially the use of the dam during drought periods (UN, 2021). During a UN conference in 2021, the Egyptian minister of Foreign Affairs suggested that "the repeated failure of negotiations is not due to a lack of scientific expertise, but rather to Ethiopian intransigence" (UN, 2021). 

 In the case that a diplomatic solution can't be reached, Egypt and Sudan have begun their preparations if a more aggressive approach is necessary. In November 2020 and March 2021 respectively, the Egyptian-Sudanese joint military exercises "Nile Eagles 1" and "Nile Eagles 2" were conducted (Soliman, 2021). The military exercises involved highly specialised operatives from either nation unifying military tactics and practicing concealment, camouflage and shooting drills (Soliman, 2021). These exercises were followed by the naval and land forces of each country undertaking preparation and unification measures, with the strategy labelled "Guardians of the Nile" (Washington Post, 2021). 

Figure 1: Image showing the Sudanese troops participating in the "Guardians of the Nile" initiative 

 In the 19th century also Egypt aimed to militarise the Nile in order to protect its control over the water supply and the fruits the river produces (Demissie, 2023). Egypt invaded Ethiopia with the aim to take possession of the Blue Nile and seize Ethiopia in the process, however this attack resulted in a humbling defeat for the Egyptians (Demissie, 2023). 

Figure 2: A graph ranking African nations' military spending as of 2023 (in millions of USD)

 Egypt is approaching this situation along the Nile with a 'last man standing' mindset, reluctant to compromise or reallocate its resources. However, Ethiopia is adamant that its time of being Egypt's subordinate is nearing its end, and a settlement is possible if Egypt and Sudan are willing to cooperate (UN, 2021). The Ethiopian government, as well as United Nations mediators, continue to propose the discounted export of surplus electricity produced as a just solution, although remain adamant that "None of us ought to stand thirsty while watching the other drink" (UN, 2021).