The Great Egyptian Sphere of Influence: Egypt Flexing its Geoeconomic Muscles!

 

 Whilst I have mainly focusing my interest on the tension between Egypt and Ethiopia throughout this blog series, I have also frequently documented Sudan's close involvement and alliance with Egypt. The modern Egyptian-Sudanese alliance become considerably stronger following the Egyptian pledge to develop a $1.2 billion transborder railway (Soliman, 2021). Moreover, to further strengthen the growing ties between these two nations, the Egyptian government committed to developing a joint industrial zone in Khartoum, further aligning the countries (Soliman, 2021). Although Egypt is currently most invested in its relationship with Sudan, it is also strengthening its relationship with the other riparian states to solidify its control and influence within the region (Ilkbahar et al., 2023). 

 Arguably the region's most powerful nation after Egypt, Kenya is high on the list of partners that the Egyptian government wishes to align its interest with (Soliman, 2021). In both 2019 and 2021 Egyptian and Kenyan ministers met to discuss GERD, along with its effects on the region, and following Egypt's recent backing of Kenya's desired U.N. security council membership, it is widely believed that Kenya would support Egypt if the dispute with Ethiopia were to worsen (Soliman, 2021). In addition, Egypt has also been reinforcing its relationships along the White Nile River, especially its relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Egypt has dedicated $10 million of funding towards the design of a dam across the Congo River, alongside assistance and expertise (Lawson, 2017). This pledge resulted in the DRC's Minister of Energy and Water stating "we will not sign any agreements that harm Egyptian interests" (Lawson, 2017). Egypt also signed intelligence and military agreements with Burundi, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, all of whom are riparian states (Ilkbahar et al., 2023). Egypt's foreign policy goals throughout the last half century have been abundantly clear and relatively successful, with almost every riparian state siding with Egypt against Ethiopia in this conflict (Demissie, 2023). 

 A particularly interesting partnership that Egypt has recently developed is with Djibouti. Since the 1990s, a vast majority of Ethiopian imports and exports transit via the Port of Djibouti, one of the world's largest and busiest ports (Soliman, 2021). Due to Ethiopia's landlocked nature, it is almost entirely reliant of Djibouti and since Ethiopia began filling the GERD's reservoir, Egypt has been lobbying Djibouti to halt Ethiopian access to the port (Demissie, 2023). Since gaining its independence in 1977, El-Sissi is the first Egyptian leader to ever visit Djibouti (Magdy, 2022). The Egyptian promise of major infrastructural development in Djibouti needs to be massive and convincing as Djibouti has long standing allegiances with Ethiopia and even imports part of its energy supply from its neighbour (Hirt, 2018).  

Figure 1: A meeting between the Egyptian and Djiboutian leaders

 Egypt already had a much larger military force than Ethiopia but now also has a 100% military commitment from Sudan, as well as an alliance with almost every nation surrounding Ethiopia (Ilkbahar et al., 2023). However, Ethiopia still hasn't halted the use of its dam serious questions are arising of how much longer Egypt will pursue diplomatic negotiations before taking a more combative approach (Demissie, 2023).