The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Will The Nile's Megaproject Trigger Regional War?

 

 Formerly known as the Millennium Dam, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is one of the most impactful, yet controversial, megaprojects in the Nile Basin Region. In September a major milestone was reached, the completion of the dam's fourth and final water filling stage, meaning the project is just over 90% complete after 12 long years of construction. Ethiopia's main motivator for undertaking such a project is the huge potential supply of hydroelectric energy following the dam's compeltion, which the nation sorely needs (Djomo et al., 2021). Once fully constructed, the dam will have the capacity to generate 6450 MW of electricity, making it the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the tenth largest on the planet (Djomo et al., 2021). Ethiopia has historically struggled with electricity production and in recent decades has regularly had to schedule temporary blackouts in order to preserve electricity stores in the grid (Carlsson et al., 2020). This project however could independently solve Ethiopia's energy supply issues, with potential to produce so much electricity that the Ethiopian government can export excess to neighbouring nations (Carlsson et al., 2020).

             Figure 1: Current progress of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's construction

 Although the socioeconomic benefits of the dam for Ethiopia make a compelling case for its construction, the downstream effects on Egypt need to be evaluated. Considering 86% of the River Nile's waters come from the Blue Nile, which originates in the Ethiopian Highlands, and just 14% from the White Nile of Burundi, Ethiopia believes it has the right to construct a dam which will manage the flow of water along the Nile (Swain, 2011). Egypt, however, who will be significantly impacted by the proposed reductions in the flow of water in the Nile, believes that Ethiopia is breaking International Water laws and is reneging on previously signed international agreements (Salman, 2012). Egypt's main concern is that a reduction in the flow of water in the Nile poses a large threat on their food security, as it is so reliant on the fertile land of the River Nile's banks for its agricultural practices, with 95% of the Egyptian population living within 3 miles of the river (Djomo et al., 2021). It is estimated that the good and services produced in the Nile Basin region accounts for 40-60% of the riparian states' GDP, alongside the thousands of subsistence farms susceptible to starvation following drought or flooding caused by the dam, demonstrating the importance of a healthy and reliable flow of water (Djomo et al., 2021). Therefore, when the dam is used to its full capacity to maximise electricity production for Ethiopia, the effects on Egypt's population and economy will be incredibly detrimental (Cascão et al., 2016). 

Figure 2: Farming on the River Nile banks in Egypt 

 As tension between Egypt and Ethiopia continues to build, military confrontation is looking icnreasingly likely with Egyptian foreign ministers already threatening potential war over Ethiopia's proposed use of the dam (Djomo et al., 2021). Since the dam's proposal Egypt and Sudan have lobbied the African Development Bank, World Bank and European Investment Bank to refuse the loans Ethiopia requires to execute the project (Djomo et al., 2021). This resulted in the Chinese government become the primary funders of the project, whilst also becoming Ethiopia's main trading partner with trade volume between them reaching $6 billion in 2016 (Djomo et al., 2021). In addition, in order to appease the Sudanese government, the Chinese government funded the completion of the Merowe Dam project on the White Nile River (Djomo et al., 2021). Chinese involvement in this situation has transformed this hydro conflict from a regional to an international geopolitical affair, and with the threat of war ever present, resolution of this situation is vital. 

 In my following post I will be diving further into this hydropolitical case and aim to establish whether Egypt has a right to detest the dam's construction. Furthermore, I will be exploring why this has become a worldwide affair and if a settlement is likely or even possible.