Posts

Concluding Post: Who Knows What Is In Store?

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   In 1875, under the leadership of Isma'il Pasha, a small Egyptian army marched Southwards with the aim to add the entire River Nile Basin and the source of the Blue Nile River to his empire (Jesman, 1959) . A small unintimidating Egyptian battalion set out on this conquest, however their threat was rapidly nullified by Ethiopian forces which intercepted them in what is modern day Eritrea during the Battle of Gundet  (Jesman, 1959) . Soon after this embarrassing defeat another Egyptian invasion followed, known as the Battle of Gura, but this also resulted in a devastating defeat and embarrassment for the Egyptians and their ambitions to take control of the Nile ended  (Jesman, 1959) .   Around 150 years later Egyptian leadership once again is seeking control over the Nile, however this time the Ethiopians are aware of what is incoming. Despite the increase in Egyptian armament which I outlined in the previous post, the Egyptian government still aspires for...

The Great Egyptian Sphere of Influence: Egypt Flexing its Geoeconomic Muscles!

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   Whilst I have mainly focusing my interest on the tension between Egypt and Ethiopia throughout this blog series, I have also frequently documented Sudan's close involvement and alliance with Egypt. The modern Egyptian-Sudanese alliance become considerably stronger following the Egyptian pledge to develop a $1.2 billion transborder railway (Soliman, 2021) . Moreover, to further strengthen the growing ties between these two nations, the Egyptian government committed to developing a joint industrial zone in Khartoum, further aligning the countries  (Soliman, 2021) . Although Egypt is currently most invested in its relationship with Sudan, it is also strengthening its relationship with the other riparian states to solidify its control and influence within the region (Ilkbahar et al., 2023) .   Arguably the region's most powerful nation after Egypt, Kenya is high on the list of partners that the Egyptian government wishes to align its interest with  (Soliman,...

Egypt is Rolling up its Sleeves: Do we have a Fight on the Horizon?

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   Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been around the table for almost 10 years now with an aim to find and equitable resolution to this looming issue, however a formal agreement is yet to be finalised (Soliman, 2021) . A burst of light broke the cloud looming over the Nile Basin Region in 2015 when the declaration of principles was signed, stating Ethiopia had both Egypt and Sudan's blessings to develop the dam on the condition that an agreement is to be reached in regard to the dam's use and management prior to the first filling of the reservoir, however, Ethiopia began filling in 2020 without reaching an agreement  (Soliman, 2021) . Following this backhanded blow from Ethiopia, subsequent meetings have been held with Dutch and French consultancy firms hired to draft an analysis of the social, environmental and economic impacts of the development, however these talks, just as those preceding them, failed to reach a just arrangement (Lawson, 2017) . The issue causing the mos...

Egypt's Dam Problem: Who Really Controls the Nile?

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   The River Nile is arguably the most integral factor influencing Egypt development throughout the nation's great history. The river has moulded the nation's economy and culture, being described as the 'principal artery of life in Egypt' (Hassan et al., 2007: 26) . Almost all Egyptian water is supplied by the Nile, with just a 1% reduction in the river's volume having grave effects on Egyptian agriculture (Batstone, 2008) . Egypt's higher levels development and economic success over the last century are largely attributed to its disproportionate use and access to the Nile compared to other neighboring riparian states, but Ethiopia for over a decade now has been challenging this and is determined to prioritise its own development, even if this is at the cost of harming the Egyptian economy (Hassan et al., 2007) .    Since colonial powers were present in the region  Egypt has largely controlled Nile waters from the source through to mouth due to a series of ...

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Will The Nile's Megaproject Trigger Regional War?

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   Formerly known as the Millennium Dam , The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is one of the most impactful, yet controversial, megaprojects in the Nile Basin Region. In September a major milestone was reached, the completion of the dam's fourth and final water filling stage, meaning the project is just over 90% complete after 12 long years of construction. Ethiopia's main motivator for undertaking such a project is the huge potential supply of hydroelectric energy following the dam's compeltion, which the nation sorely needs (Djomo et al., 2021) . Once fully constructed, the dam will have the capacity to generate 6450 MW of electricity, making it the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the tenth largest on the planet  (Djomo et al., 2021) . Ethiopia has historically struggled with electricity production and in recent decades has regularly had to schedule temporary blackouts in order to preserve electricity stores in the grid (Carlsson et al., 2020) . This pro...

An Introduction to the Hydropolitics of the Nile basin

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   Welcome to this introductory post of my blog series exploring the complex hydropolitics of the Nile Basin in Eastern Africa. The river Nile spans across 10 different countries, with its basin covering 10% of Africa's land mass . Despite the differences in their economic and political states, all of these countries share the same concern of a growing demand for water and energy supply (World Bank, 2019) . Throughout history, the region's economic, social and political development has been affected by water, with today's political climate testament to this (Jägerskog et al., 2019) . In 2015, the United Nations released their 17 Sustainable Development Goals, the sixth one being 'ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all' (United Nations, 2023) , but as urban populations continue to rise the 2030 target to have reached this goal is looking increasingly unattainable (Thompson et al., 2000) .   Figure 1  In the following blog posts...